Monday, June 26, 2017

2017 Hurricane Season Outlook

The winds of change may be blowing soon. Once again hurricane season is upon us. What can we expect this year? The 2017 Atlantic hurricane season is forecast to be more active than historical averages regarding the number of named storms and hurricanes, according to a forecast released Thursday by the National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).

NOAA's forecast calls for a 70 percent likelihood of 11 to 17 named storms (including April's Tropical Storm Arlene). 5 to 9 of those could become hurricanes. Further, 2 to 4 of those might become major hurricanes. The 30-year historical average (1981-2010) for the Atlantic basin is 12 named storms, six hurricanes and three major hurricanes. A major hurricane is one that is Category 3 or stronger on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.

“The outlook reflects our expectation of a weak or non-existent El Nino, near- or above-average sea-surface temperatures across the tropical Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea, and average or weaker-than-average vertical wind shear in that same region,” said Gerry Bell, Ph.D., lead seasonal hurricane forecaster with NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center.

Strong El Ninos and wind shear typically suppress development of Atlantic hurricanes, so the prediction for weak conditions points to more hurricane activity this year. Also, warmer sea surface temperatures tend to fuel hurricanes as they move across the ocean. However, the climate models are showing considerable uncertainty, which is reflected in the comparable probabilities for an above-normal and near-normal season.

As usual, all coastal Florida residents are urged to make the same hurricane preparations every year regardless of their prediction. Inspect your property thoroughly. Hire a Certified Arborist to evaluate your trees and provide pruning recommendations to prepare them for hurricane season. Make a comprehensive list of essential items you may need to survive and start now to accumulate them. Locate the nearest hurricane shelter in your area in the event an evacuation order is given. Most importantly, have a plan and be prepared. It only takes one hurricane to make landfall near you and disrupt normal daily activities.