Each year the Colorado State University weather team releases its hurricane season forecast. This year they are predicting a below average season for the Atlantic basin. They believe the six month season beginning June 1 could possibly produce 16 named tropical storms, 9 hurricanes and 5 major hurricanes. Their outlook is based on the anticipated end of La Nina conditions in the Pacific combined with anomalously cooler tropical Atlantic waters.
According to the CSU weather team, the average hurricane season consists of the following and is based on 30 years of historical data.
- 11 named tropical storms
- 6 hurricanes
- 2 major hurricanes
Here are the highlights of their 2012 prediction:
- 11 named tropical storms
- 5 hurricanes
- 2 major hurricanes
- 42% probability of a major hurricane making landfall somewhere in the U.S.
- 24% probability of a major hurricane making landfall on the East coast
- 24% probability of a major hurricane making landfall on the Gulf coast
How did they do with their 2011 prediction?
Let’s take a look back and see how they did with their 2011 prediction. They anticipated 16 named tropical storms, 9 hurricanes and 5 major hurricanes. At the end of the season there were 19 named storms, 7 hurricanes and 4 major hurricanes.
As usual, all coastal Florida residents are urged to make the same hurricane preparations every year regardless of their prediction. Inspect your property thoroughly. Hire a Certified Arborist to evaluate your trees and provide pruning recommendations to prepare them for hurricane season. Make a comprehensive list of essential items you may need to survive and start now to accumulate them. Locate the nearest hurricane shelter in your area in the event an evacuation order is given. Most importantly, have a plan and be prepared. It only takes one hurricane to make landfall near you and disrupt normal daily activities.
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